Things Are Looking Up For TJX, or, Javelin Research - Credibility Issues?
From The AP Report:
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast a same-store sales increase of 4.6 percent.
Same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, are a key measure of retailer performance, because they measure growth at existing stores rather than from newly opened ones. Total sales for the five weeks ended April 7 climbed 11 percent to $1.7 billion from $1.5 billion in the prior-year period.
Same-store sales are up 5 percent for the year to date, while total sales are ahead 9 percent to $2.9 billion from $2.6 billion.
Looks good for them, huh?
So in light of this news, and incident metrics from every single other incident at a public company, how credible is this report from Javelin Strategy and Research?
The survey of consumers found that 63 percent viewed retailers and merchants as the least secure links in the chain of groups that handle credit-card information. Credit-card processors came in a distance second place, with one-in-six consumers considering processors insecure. When little information is known about a breach, more than half of all consumers consider that the merchants are to blame, the study found.
“Consumer are jumpy, and have served notice that they will steer profits to companies they perceive as security leaders,†James Van Dyke, president and founder of Javelin Strategy, said in a statement announcing the study.
You might remember Javelin - they had a nice study that suggested that identity theft was on the decline right before the FTC said it was increasing.
Yeah, I’m kind of picking on Javelin. But that’s not really the point -Â to be snarky about them. The point is that we have GOT to be discerning about all of the studies and reports that are being thrown at us.
james van dyke Jun 18
Regarding the most recent study from the FTC, it’s simply not accurate to report that “…the FTC said it was increasing”, as you state in your blog. Javelin’s ID Fraud study is based on nationally-representative survey methods, and yes, we found that the crime is in decline. Yet similar to the FTC, we also found that the typical per-victim “consumer cost” (AKA out-of-pocket expense) is on the increase. Because the most recent FTC study is based only on victims that choose to report the crime, it makes sense that an increase in per-victim costs would coincide with higher levels of self-reporting.
Bottom line, the two studies actually validate one another whenever comparisons are made on a valid basis.
Alex Jun 19
OK, so what you’re saying is that even though the frequency of ID theft is in contradiction between the two reports, it’s OK because the amounts are increasing and you’re in harmony there?